The Disappearing Keys

Scenario

You come home and your keys aren't in their usual spot. You always put them in the same place. You live alone. The door was locked when you arrived.

Question

Which reasoning approach gives you the BEST starting hypothesis?

1. A.Assume something unusual happened — a break-in, a prank, or a supernatural event
2. B.Conclude the keys are lost and immediately replace them
3. C.Generate the most likely explanation that fits all known facts, then test it
4. D.Check every room systematically before forming any hypothesis